2015 started with
quite a bit of optimism within the construction industry and forecasts were for
relatively buoyant output growth, following a stronger than expected
performance in many sectors of the industry in 2014. Although construction
output is thought to have improved in the second half of the year, official ONS
data published so far indicates that 2015 has not proved to be as buoyant as
forecast. However, the mood in the industry as a whole generally appears more
optimistic than the latest figures show, and there have been some positive
signs as the housebuilding and office construction sectors have continued to
strengthen, and the education sector performed surprisingly well in 2014/15.
The construction
industry is now a £140bn sector and inevitably fortunes will vary across the
sector, with issues such as low-margin contracts, rising labour costs and skill
shortages impacting contractors and across the supply chain. There has also
been a significant amount of corporate restructuring in the construction sector
during the year as material suppliers and contractors strive to improve
margins.
In addition, we are
starting to see the impact of changing consumer trends, with the growing impact
of online retailing impacting on many sectors, while the focus is increasingly
on trade sales as a result of the trend towards GSI (Get Someone In) rather
than DIY. These trends have resulted in the implementation of some store
rationalisation programmes, particularly among the DIY Multiples, but also in
other related sectors.
However, as we move
towards 2016, the pipeline and order books appear strong and AMA Research’s
forecasts are positive for the short to medium term, with indications of good
recovery for both residential and non-residential construction sectors likely
to continue into the medium-term. Our forecast for 2016 is for around 5.5%
growth, with medium term trends illustrated below.
The next 12 months
will continue to be challenging, but in general the outlook is positive across
several key construction sectors, which should sustain underlying growth in the
next 3-4 years.
Recently, the
government has made some major announcements regarding housebuilding targets
and infrastructure projects, with a substantial commitment to investment in the
medium term. Among the large scale infrastructure schemes due to receive major
investment are Hinckley Point C, HS2 and projects under the Roads Investment
Strategy. The infrastructure sector is also likely to see a continued increase
in foreign investment and involvement, in particular from Chinese or other
Asian investors. However, the proposed cuts to feed-in-tariffs due to be
introduced next year, may have a negative effect on growth in the renewables
sector.
Housing output is
also forecast to grow strongly in 2016 and beyond as a result of a general
increase in demand due to improved consumer confidence and rising households,
with stamp duty changes and the recently announced government Starter Homes
Initiative, aimed at first time buyers also expected to drive housebuilding
growth in the medium term.
However, AMA Research
forecasts that the housing sector will see more of a steady recovery than a
huge rise in the number of houses built. Government targets are very ambitious
and similar announcements in the past have not led to any sudden increases in
housebuilding. While there does now appear to be greater commitment from all
parts of the political spectrum to increasing the supply of new homes, the
‘devil is in the detail’ in terms of easing planning restrictions and meeting
the real demand for affordable housing in key parts of the country, such as the
South East.
The education sector,
which has been surprisingly buoyant of late, is also expected to remain strong,
with commitments including investment in the higher education and student
accommodation sectors in particular, while offices are also forecast to be
among the most buoyant sectors going forward – and not just in London. However,
public sector building, aside from in infrastructure, will most likely remain
depressed.
Issues that will
affect the building and construction industry negatively during 2016 include
interest rate rises, the introduction of the National Living Wage (which will
affect the FM and contracting sectors in particular) and planning issues.
Planning is still causing problems, both at a local level with regards to
housing as outlined above, and at a national level as has been exemplified with
the delay in the decision regarding the third runway at Heathrow Airport. In
addition, as output in the housing, infrastructure, health and education
sectors are all politically driven, priorities may change at any time!
Nevertheless, the
underlying economic drivers for growth look relatively positive for 2016 and
the pipelines in most private construction sectors have continued to strengthen
despite some negative pressures during 2015. Not everyone will benefit, but as
construction activity continues to rise, this should feed up the supply chain
in building, home improvement and related sectors.
As a result, for the
longer term, AMA forecasts indicate annual growth rates of between 3-6% to 2019
when total construction output is forecast to reach around £170bn - hopefully
providing you with some confidence for investment and good opportunities for
growth.
Best Wishes for 2016
from all at AMA Research!