Positive growth prospects in the medium term for European Builders Merchants market

The total European builders merchants market grew by around 4% in 2015 with further growth of 2% expected in 2016, according to a newly released report by AMA Research. This new report reviews the builders merchants markets in 12 European countries (excluding the UK) and looks at construction and economic indicators, as well as identifying the key merchants groups/organisations operating in each of the 12 countries. Estimated at around €109bn in 2015, growth of around 2% is currently indicated for the European builders merchants market in 2016. However, there are significant differences between the 12 countries in terms of the merchants market structure, as well as distribution of lightside and heavyside building products.

In terms of contribution to GDP, construction output varies considerably between the countries reviewed - ranging from as low as 6-7% to highs of around 16-18% - with a typical overall average of 8-10%. Construction output has been extremely volatile in some countries over the last decade - notably Ireland, Spain and Portugal – and, in overall terms, has not recovered to 2007 levels across the leading 12 EU countries reviewed.

Growth in the overall builders merchants market across the 12 countries is forecast to be slightly lower in 2016-17. Though the market size has increased year on year since 2013, it is still below the peak achieved in 2007-08, and while the above figures at an overall level indicate a degree of stability in recent years, this conceals a relatively high degree of volatility at individual country level.

Germany has provided one of the more stable construction sectors in recent years avoiding the significant swings in activity levels that have typified market performance in many other countries. In addition, Germany also has high specification standards in most products, which has helped underpin the €30 billion building merchants market. France and Italy have performed less well in recent years, but remain significant markets - France underpinned by a strong housebuilding sector, while Italy has a stronger refurbishment market.

In recent years, there has been significant activity among buying groups with expansion and mergers/co-operations within national boundaries, as well as the development of pan-European links and some consolidation amongst the merchants. Three key multi-national groups are significant in the overall European market: Saint-Gobain, whose building materials distribution division claims to be the European leader in building materials distribution; Wolseley the UK based company which claims to be the world’s largest specialist trade distributor of heating and plumbing products and CRH, the Irish building materials group.

“Despite the current difficult climate, the 12 markets under review are also likely to see further rationalisation over the longer term, though inevitably further consolidation in some countries is likely to come up against competition barriers” said Andrew Hartley, Director of AMA Research. “As well as structural changes in distribution, the markets are also likely to see further rationalisation of supply chains, as major international groups expand their building material interests across different products and markets.”

2016 is expected to be a relatively difficult year, with many countries experiencing marginal growth at best. Government spending levels across most EU countries are still under pressure to keep within EU guidelines and, inevitably, public sector construction works are a target for budget cuts and this will continue to feed through into the builders merchants markets in some countries. In addition, new housing output is likely to be impacted as consumer spending and confidence levels fall. Repairs/maintenance works typically also depends on consumer confidence which remains relatively fragile across most major European economies in late-2016. However, into the medium term, prospects for growth are more positive.

The ‘Builders Merchants Market Report - Europe 2016-2020 Analysis’ report is published by AMA Research, a leading provider of market research and consultancy services within the construction and home improvement markets. The full report is available now and can be ordered online at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242 235724. In addition, also on offer are reviews of the 12 individual countries and a separate review of the builders’ merchants market is also available by contacting AMA Research directly.

Irish construction sector set for highest rate of output growth in a decade

The Irish construction and housebuilding sector has now turned a corner after several years of decline, with renewed focus on recovery after a lengthy and deep recession. In 2016, the recovery in the Irish construction sector is set to accelerate and experience the highest rate of output growth in over a decade at around 20% to reach around €15.1bn. However, industry output levels are still only a fraction of those seen during the peak of 2007 when output reached over €38bn.

Current estimates suggest that total output in the Irish construction industry will continue to see growth throughout the period 2017-2020, albeit at a lower rate than experienced during 2014-16. In terms of regional construction output, the East and Midlands region (also known as Leinster) continues to have the largest share of the construction market, with over 8,000 projects at various stages of development.

The private non-residential sector, which includes all industrial, commercial, retail, agricultural, and hotel & leisure construction output, is now experiencing a strong recovery in development activity, and this is expected to continue in 2016, with activity levels increasing and output forecast to grow by over 23%. The Irish market is also benefiting from large scale FDI within the bio-pharma and data centre sectors and there are several large-scale bio-pharmaceutical, clean technology and data centre developments currently taking place across Ireland.

In 2015, the value of construction related investment associated with new social infrastructure construction projects also rose strongly, and increased public capital programme allocations for the period 2016 to 2021 will support an increase in overall output.

Both education and healthcare construction output is expected to benefit from investment under the Capital Plan 2016-2021, with a new €3.8bn School Building Programme to take place over the same period. The residential sector has been slow to recover from the economic and property downturn and, although annual housing completions are beginning to rise, there is now a very significant demand for housing in the major urban areas which is causing significant increases in rental costs, something which should stimulate housebuilding activity.

The Irish contracting industry is highly fragmented with a large number of small to medium sized companies, many of whom specialise in repair and maintenance activities and operate on a regional basis. Unlike the UK market, which is dominated by a dozen or so large, quoted companies with separate commercial, civil engineering and housebuilding operations, the Irish market is characterised by many smaller companies who operate across both residential and commercial sectors.

“The supply structure for the Irish housebuilding market is also highly fragmented with no more than one player having more than 2% of the market” said Keith Taylor, Director of AMA Research. “Over the past 10 years, the structure of the industry has changed fundamentally, with the collapse of several of Ireland’s largest housebuilders and developers, and there are now just two publicly quoted housebuilders in Ireland.”

Overall output values are expected to increase by around 10% in 2017 and by 9-10% thereafter to until 2020. Into the medium-term, the return to growth is expected to be driven by the private commercial and residential sectors - supported by growing investment in social housing - and civil engineering activity. Output will also be supported by improving consumer and investor confidence as regional and global economic conditions improve.

Both the Irish construction and engineering industries have strong exposure to the UK market. Though the UK’s decision to leave the EU has caused uncertainty to the economic outlook, the full impact of ‘Brexit’ on the Irish economy and construction and housebuilding industries will take time to emerge. However, there may be a more positive impact on the Irish construction industry with opportunities for UK-based corporates and financial sector firms to relocate from the UK to elsewhere within the European single market.

The ‘Construction and Housebuilding Market Report – Republic of Ireland - 2016-2020 Analysis’ report is published by AMA Research, a leading provider of market research and consultancy services within the construction and home improvement markets. The report is available now and can be ordered online at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242 235724.