The UK market for passive fire protection products is
estimated to be worth around £650m at manufacturers selling prices - excluding installation. The market has
grown by around 2% in 2017, with forecasts for 2018 at a similar level. This follows
good growth between 2013 and 2015, which represented a period of recovery for
the overall construction industry, especially in the education, offices, retail
and leisure sectors. The forecasts indicate a more subdued performance, with
lower levels of construction activity anticipated as investor confidence has
fallen, in the lead up to Brexit.
In terms of structure, the passive fire protection market
is comprised of fire resistant doors, fittings and intumescent seals, cables,
partitions and suspended ceilings, glass, structural protection and ductwork
and damper systems. Fire resistant doors, fitting and seals account for the
largest shares of the market, with around 60% of the total value.
Recent product innovations in the sector include;
intumescent coatings with faster drying times, electronic fire door closers that
are linked to fire alarm systems, and more flexible fire stopping pipe collars
that allow a greater range of applications compared to conventional collars.
Key drivers, such as the regulatory aspects of the fire
protection sector, are expected to remain unchanged in the short term, since
the Hackitt Review into the Grenfell Tower disaster only covered high-rise
buildings and provided no recommendations for immediate change in the technical
aspects of Building Regulations. However, modifications are expected in the
medium to longer term, and AMA Research also anticipates that there will be other
implications for the wider industry, as manufacturers and specifiers alike seek
to provide safer environments, possibly leading to positive growth by value.
Forecasts for the passive fire protection market in the
medium-term are for modest growth in 2018 and 2019, with slightly higher growth
levels by 2020. While the longer-term impact of Brexit remains unclear,
investors are likely to remain cautious, and this has resulted in recent
forecasts being less optimistic for overall construction sector output growth.
In the short term, activity in the non-domestic
construction sector is likely to slow down, with more subdued growth of around
1-2% 2018-19. The overall market for passive fire protection products such as
cable, glass, ceilings, partitions and doors, is dependent on the performance
of key construction sectors, such as offices, industrial, entertainment, health
and education.
In terms of output, new office construction is forecast
to be less positive over 2018-22, following strong output growth of 70% between
2013 and 2017, something which may impact on demand in sectors such as
structural fire protection, suspended ceilings and partitions.
However, the hotel and entertainment sector has shown
good growth in recent years and is attracting substantial investment,
especially in the budget sector. The university sector has also been positive
in terms of new orders in 2018, with future output having the potential to be
boosted by demand for new accommodation and facilities for additional students
following the removal of the cap on student numbers.
Uncertainty regarding Brexit is expected to have less of
an impact on residential construction, where the outlook remains modestly
positive, driven in particular by the ongoing imbalance between demand and
supply for new housing. Increasing numbers of new flats and apartments built
will be the primary source of demand for passive protection in the residential
sector.
Other factors influencing the market include the
performance of Sterling against both the US dollar and the Euro. Since the 2016
Referendum, Sterling’s fall in value and continued relative weakness has meant
that materials price inflation has become a key influence in the UK
construction market. If this situation continues, it will prompt some value
growth in the passive fire protection sector, since a wide range of materials
and products is imported.
The 'Passive Fire Protection Market
Report- UK 2018-2022' report is available now and can be ordered online
at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242
235724.