Modest growth forecasts for passive fire protection products in the UK

The UK market for passive fire protection products is estimated to be worth around £650m at manufacturers selling prices - excluding installation. The market has grown by around 2% in 2017, with forecasts for 2018 at a similar level. This follows good growth between 2013 and 2015, which represented a period of recovery for the overall construction industry, especially in the education, offices, retail and leisure sectors. The forecasts indicate a more subdued performance, with lower levels of construction activity anticipated as investor confidence has fallen, in the lead up to Brexit.

In terms of structure, the passive fire protection market is comprised of fire resistant doors, fittings and intumescent seals, cables, partitions and suspended ceilings, glass, structural protection and ductwork and damper systems. Fire resistant doors, fitting and seals account for the largest shares of the market, with around 60% of the total value.

Recent product innovations in the sector include; intumescent coatings with faster drying times, electronic fire door closers that are linked to fire alarm systems, and more flexible fire stopping pipe collars that allow a greater range of applications compared to conventional collars.

Key drivers, such as the regulatory aspects of the fire protection sector, are expected to remain unchanged in the short term, since the Hackitt Review into the Grenfell Tower disaster only covered high-rise buildings and provided no recommendations for immediate change in the technical aspects of Building Regulations. However, modifications are expected in the medium to longer term, and AMA Research also anticipates that there will be other implications for the wider industry, as manufacturers and specifiers alike seek to provide safer environments, possibly leading to positive growth by value.

Forecasts for the passive fire protection market in the medium-term are for modest growth in 2018 and 2019, with slightly higher growth levels by 2020. While the longer-term impact of Brexit remains unclear, investors are likely to remain cautious, and this has resulted in recent forecasts being less optimistic for overall construction sector output growth.

In the short term, activity in the non-domestic construction sector is likely to slow down, with more subdued growth of around 1-2% 2018-19. The overall market for passive fire protection products such as cable, glass, ceilings, partitions and doors, is dependent on the performance of key construction sectors, such as offices, industrial, entertainment, health and education.

In terms of output, new office construction is forecast to be less positive over 2018-22, following strong output growth of 70% between 2013 and 2017, something which may impact on demand in sectors such as structural fire protection, suspended ceilings and partitions.

However, the hotel and entertainment sector has shown good growth in recent years and is attracting substantial investment, especially in the budget sector. The university sector has also been positive in terms of new orders in 2018, with future output having the potential to be boosted by demand for new accommodation and facilities for additional students following the removal of the cap on student numbers.

Uncertainty regarding Brexit is expected to have less of an impact on residential construction, where the outlook remains modestly positive, driven in particular by the ongoing imbalance between demand and supply for new housing. Increasing numbers of new flats and apartments built will be the primary source of demand for passive protection in the residential sector.

Other factors influencing the market include the performance of Sterling against both the US dollar and the Euro. Since the 2016 Referendum, Sterling’s fall in value and continued relative weakness has meant that materials price inflation has become a key influence in the UK construction market. If this situation continues, it will prompt some value growth in the passive fire protection sector, since a wide range of materials and products is imported.

The 'Passive Fire Protection Market Report- UK 2018-2022' report is available now and can be ordered online at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242 235724.

Door and Window Fittings Market - 5 Key Facts

• The market for door and window fittings is estimated to have grown by 11% since 2013 but remains significantly below the pre-recession peak.
• Locks and latches represent the largest product sector, accounting for around 30% of market share.
• Low cost imports continue to limit value growth in some sectors, with imports of door and window fittings up 16% between 2013 and 2016.
• The residential sector accounts for over 60% of market value.
• In 2017 we estimate that the share of ironmongery distributed through door and window fabricators has increased to over 40%.

These facts have been extracted from AMA Research's 'Door and Window Fittings Market Report - UK 2018-2022' available for purchase now. 

29% growth in the UK generator hire market since 2014

The market for diesel generator hire, which according to AMA’s definition excludes ancillary products, has performed well in recent years, having experienced growth of 29% from 2014. Over this period, the market has benefitted from increasing demand across most many application areas including construction, events, infrastructure and industrial. Other drivers include rising power demand in several sectors, such as events and industrial, as well as ‘critical’ applications requiring more secure back-up support.

The generator hire market is part of the larger construction equipment rental market that includes products typically hired out by plant and tool hire companies, such as earth moving, lifting, pumping, road-making, power and tools. It is estimated that the generator hire market accounts for only around 2% of the overall construction equipment rental market.

Opportunities in the generator hire market range from very large and infrequent situations to very small & recurring events. High value, one off sources of demand include major entertainment events and natural disasters; whilst other application areas include temporary construction usage and the need for power while a company’s own equipment is repaired.

Construction is a key end-use sector, and accounts for around one third of the market. Generators are required in a number of applications, such as for powering site cabins and welfare facilities, as well as powering pumps, lighting, crushing plant, tower cranes and tools & equipment etc. Generators are often one of the first pieces of equipment to arrive on site and the last to leave.

The industrial sector is the largest non-construction sector and the second largest overall, with demand driven by sectors such as manufacturing, refining & processing, recycling & waste, and data centres. Infrastructure and events are also important sectors for generator hire, each accounting for a significant share of the market. Further demand comes from the public sector as well other sectors including extractive, agriculture, commercial, retail and landscaping.

By volume, generators with a rating of 21-350kVA hold the largest share and account for close to half of the market, with generators up to 20 kVA having the second largest share at around a third of the market. The former are typically used in construction and events as well as in small offices, industrial units or hospital departments.

In terms of distribution, the market continues to be dominated by large, national multi-branch organisations that have expanded through a combination of organic growth and acquisition. In addition, a wider range of outlets including builders’ merchants, DIY multiples and garden stores now offer a hire service. Generator hire is also offered by both plant hire and tool hire companies, with the former focusing on larger generators with a higher generator rating and the latter focusing on smaller generators, typically up to around 20-25 kVA. Specialists can offer generators with a wider range of power ratings, up to around 2,000 kVA.

Prospects for the generator hire market into the medium-term remain relatively optimistic with the market forecast to experience annual growth rates of 4-5% following a slightly smaller increase of 2% in 2018. Going forward, construction sectors likely to be the main drivers of growth in the next 3-4 years are housing, infrastructure and entertainment & leisure.

The effect of the ‘Brexit’ negotiations on levels of confidence and investment remains the biggest risk factor to business confidence, which, if it falls further will have a direct effect on project starts. Additionally, any slowdown in non-construction activities, such as manufacturing or events, will negatively impact market value.

The ‘Generator Hire Market Report - UK 2018-2022’ report is available now and can be ordered online at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242 235724.

Over 20% growth forecast for the UK kitchen & bathroom worktops market over the next five years

There has been good growth in the domestic kitchen and bathroom worktops market in recent years. Between 2014 and 2017, the UK overall worktops market is estimated to have grown by 13%. The worktops market has performed fractionally better than in the kitchen furniture and overall bathroom markets over the last few years, reflecting a shift to higher value worktops and a trend for larger worktop areas, such as islands and peninsulas with waterfall worktops.

Kitchen worktops account for 95% of the overall domestic worktop market. Value growth has been slightly higher in the worktops market than in the overall kitchen furniture market, reflecting a slow shift to more expensive materials such as granite and solid surface, following the relatively buoyant economic conditions over the last five years. This trend is continuing, and it is expected that value growth in the worktop market will be slightly ahead of the wider kitchen furniture market in the medium term.

The bathroom worktops market has followed a growth pattern similar to the bathroom furniture market, mainly due to a lower level of separate worktop replacements in this sector compared with the kitchen sector. Overall, the bathroom worktops market has grown, due to factors such as the increasing popularity of bathroom furniture, but as for kitchen worktops, the market has also benefited from the use of more expensive materials, including quartz, solid surface and granite surfaces, and features such as worktops with integrated basins.

Laminates continue to dominate the kitchen worktops market, making up just under half of all kitchen worktops installed by value, and almost 75% by volume. However, the share of laminates has declined notably in recent years, something which has been accelerated by the development of stone and engineered stone products for worktops in bespoke installations.

In the bathroom worktops sector the material mix is somewhat different. Laminates still dominate this market, making up over 60% of material used in terms of value, followed by solid surface and composite materials, whose shares has increased partly because of their flexibility in structure. The rest of the market is made up by stone and other materials, but so far, stone has not made the headway in this sector that it has in the kitchen worktops market.

The UK kitchen worktop supply chain is complex, with builders and plumbers’ merchants accounting for the largest distribution share by value. This channel has grown significantly in recent years followed by the retail kitchen specialists, while the DIY multiples sector has lost some market share. The sale of kitchens with installation included is likely to continue to increase, with many large suppliers now promoting this service.

Within the bathroom worktops market, builders and plumbers’ merchants are also the major distribution channel, followed by bathroom equipment specialists and DIY Multiples. One of the major differences between the kitchen and bathroom worktops sectors is that within the bathroom sector a larger proportion of worktops are incorporated into the furniture itself.

“The market for kitchen and bathroom worktops is expected to achieve reasonably good growth and is forecast to increase by 21% in value terms between 2017 and 2022, although the volume and price of imported materials is expected to account for a proportion of that increase” said Hayley Thornley, Market Research Manager at AMA Research.

“Kitchen worktops are expected to account for around 15% of the total kitchen furniture market by the end of the forecast period.”

The Domestic Kitchen and Bathroom Worktops Market Report - UK 2018-2022 report is available now and can be ordered online at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242 235724.

Social Housing Construction & Maintenance Market - 5 Key Facts

• Housing Association completions were down by around 3% in 2016-17.
• Around 68% of social housing completions in 2016-17 were for affordable rent, an increase of around 40% on completions in the previous year.
• Going forward, social housing completions are expected to increase by around 2% per annum to 2021-22.
• Total expenditure on housing association repair and maintenance is expected to decline to around £2.8bn by 2022.
• Under the London Affordable Homes Programme 2016-2021, the Greater London Authority has secured £3.15bn to start building at least 90,000 new affordable homes.

These facts have been extracted from AMA Research's 'Social Housing Construction & Maintenance Market Report - UK 2018-2022' available for purchase now. 

Decline forecast for UK wall cladding market volumes

The UK market for wall cladding is estimated to have increased by around 40% between 2013 and 2017 in volume terms. In 2017/18, growth has been driven by strong growth in new build and major refurbishment output in the broader residential, commercial office, schools and universities, hotels & leisure facilities and warehousing sectors. However, in the retail and healthcare sectors and in certain segments of the leisure market, output levels have either declined or remained static. The forecast for 2018 is also for little to no growth.

Other than the state of the general economy and issues emanating from the ‘Brexit’ negotiations, it is the Grenfell Tower fire in 2017 that could have the greatest impact on the cladding market going forward. A possible ban on the use of combustible materials on buildings over 18 metres tall may well depress demand for cladding systems comprising rigid polymer insulation while benefitting those classified as A1 under Euroclass definitions e.g. stone and glass wool, concrete and fibre cement.

While investigations into other high-rise residential towers, with cladding similar to that installed on Grenfell Tower, have revealed that around 500 are similarly vulnerable to rapid fire spread, relatively few buildings have so far had the old ACM cladding replaced. With a number of local authorities and housing associations experiencing severe financial problems, that is unlikely to change in the near future.

Although modest annual economic growth levels are currently forecast to 2020, the medium-term outlook will be dependent upon the path taken to exit the EU and the type of trade and legislative deals formulated. As a result, our view is that demand for cladding will decline. Over the period ending March 2019, at the very least, the uncertainty created by the Brexit situation is likely to create more volatility in the construction market at large, which in turn will lead to a lack of confidence among property investors and business owners.

Other issues include a weakening of Sterling against the Euro and the US dollar, endemic problems concerning skills shortages in key areas, and the challenges associated with the changes to fire regulations and changed specifications for cladding products.

Other factors that are expected to contribute towards slower growth include the cutting or ending of subsidies for certain products and development programmes. For example, the government’s Energy Company Obligation (ECO) expires next April. A key driver stimulating demand for external wall insulation, it is likely that, as with previous government energy efficiency schemes, once ECO is complete there could be a large drop in demand.

The ‘Wall Cladding Market Report - UK 2018-2022’ report is available now and can be ordered online at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242 235724.

4% value growth in the brassware and taps market despite intense pricing pressures

The brassware and taps market in the UK, which is worth in excess of £200m, is estimated to have grown by 4% in 2017. Following a period of slow growth, the market improved between 2014-2016, driven by more favourable conditions in the new housebuilding sector and demand from the private commercial sector. A more modest performance is anticipated in 2018 and 2019, with consumer and business confidence expected to decline, impacting on demand for brassware and taps. 

Basin brassware represents largest sector of the market with around 40% share, closely followed by kitchen taps with a similar share, while remaining 20% was accounted for by bath brassware.

The main distribution channel for brassware and taps continues to be builders and plumbers’ merchants with the home improvement multiples also holding a substantial share. Other retail channels include kitchen and bathroom specialists, grocery and furniture multiples, direct supply and department stores. Online retailers are also becoming more important as consumers increasingly use the internet to source the best deals.

Along with durability, key factors such as quality and design will remain important in the UK brassware and taps market. Aesthetics will continue to exert a notable influence on consumer choice particularly with respect to total kitchen or bathroom co-ordination, but the issue of design has also gained importance in commercial applications such as hospitals and schools, with a shift away from the traditional institutionalised appearance towards more domestic orientated styling.

With an ageing UK population, there will continue to be a significant demand for inclusive brassware and taps that combine style with ease of use. For example, lever-controlled products, thermostatic mechanisms, and those designed with digital/electronic controls. Water saving will also continue to be an important consideration and growth is likely in product areas including aerated spray taps, low water content taps, and brassware with an in-built eco button etc. 

Going forward, there are several key factors affecting the market prospects for the brassware and taps market in the UK. Housebuilding volumes have achieved good growth in recent years and this is expected to remain steady, albeit at a lower level compared to recent years, while RMI activity may be more constrained. However, refurbishment activity is expected to improve towards the end of the forecast period.

In the commercial sector, private work is typically a key driver of growth, but also relies upon business confidence, which is again expected to be stronger towards the end of the forecast period following the EU withdrawal. However, public sector spending cuts will continue to be an issue.

Exchange rates and the cost of imported goods have direct implications for brassware and taps produced or sourced from abroad. The current weakness of sterling makes imports into the UK more expensive, along with increasing transportation costs.

“Moderate to steady growth of 3-4% per annum is currently forecast from 2020 to 2022” said Hayley Thornley, Market Research Manager at AMA Research. “The brassware and taps market will continue to fragment and the number of own-label products, is likely to increase. Pricing pressures are likely to remain intense due to the high level of imported product, weak value of sterling and the growing number of competitive distribution channels such as the internet.”

The ‘Bathroom & Kitchen Brassware and Taps Market Report - UK 2018-2022’ report is available now and can be ordered online at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242 235724.

UK street lighting market to see 17% value growth by 2022

The UK street lighting market has seen steady growth in recent years, driven by substantial LED replacement programmes run by local authorities over the past 5 years or so. By 2022, expenditure on street lighting is forecast to reach £336m, up by 17% compared with present levels. The share of the market taken by new projects is expected to increase, as more local authorities replace outdated lighting systems with LEDs.

Street lights account for an estimated 95% of public sector street lighting, with illuminated signs and bollards making up the remainder. Street lighting products include lamps, columns and ‘intelligent’ or ‘smart’ street lighting control systems.

With costs for non-energy efficient lighting increasing rapidly, more local authorities have been adopting LED systems offering 100,000 hours of light, compared with 15,000 for traditional bulbs. It has been suggested that local authorities could cut their energy expenditure by around £100m per annum by switching to LED street lights. As well as being more economical in energy terms, these new products also have longer lifespans and therefore will require a lower long term spend on replacements.

Although many councils have already switched to LED, there remains a significant proportion of old style, lower value lighting that is over 40 years old and in need of replacement and conversion. By 2014 only 10% of councils had switched to using low energy lighting and estimates suggest that in 2017 around 25% of lighting columns were in the process of being upgraded by local authorities.

It is estimated that maintenance accounts for a significant share of the market. Within the new projects/replacement equipment category much of future spending is likely to focus upon new areas of energy-efficiency, though in the long term, the value of maintenance is expected to decrease due to the reduced replacement lead times and the lowering of product prices as LED lighting penetration increases.

Once these new systems are in place, expenditure on new projects is expected to stabilise, leading to growth rates of around 1-2% per year towards the end of the forecast period. However, new housing developments across the country to meet ambitious Government house building targets has the potential to drive substantial growth in the market.

The ‘Street Furniture and Lighting Market Report - UK 2018-2022’ report is available now and can be ordered online at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242 235724.

Paint, Wallcoverings and Woodcare Market - 5 Key Facts

• UK market for paint mix by end use sector indicates a reduced share taken by the home improvement multiples of over 50%.
• Water based paints continue to increase share and solvent-based paints now account for less than one fifth of the retail sector.
• The importance of countries such as Germany and the Netherlands continues as these countries accounting for over 40% of imports.
• Paint continues to dominate the sector accounting for almost two thirds of the market.
• Garden applications dominates the end-use application mix for woodcare products.

These facts have been extracted from AMA Research's 'Paint, Wallcoverings and Woodcare Market Report - UK 2018-2022' available for purchase now. 

Meet us at Glee!

In September, we have been booked to present two seminars at Glee - a leading exhibition for garden and outdoor living, held at the NEC in Birmingham, where over 500 leading UK and international wholesale garden suppliers are expected to exhibit across 8 unique show sectors between the 10-12 September. 

AMA Research will be there on 10th September, when the lead editor of our décor and garden report sectors, Jane Tarver, will share valuable insight from some of our market reports by presenting two seminars.

The first seminar, called 'Trends and opportunities in the pet accessories market', will be held on the Pets at Glee stage, which is new for this year. Pet accessories represent a sizeable and growing market that offers significant opportunities for garden centres, and now has its own dedicated space at the show.

Questions that will be answered during the session include; What is the size of the pet accessories market? Which sectors of the market are seeing strong growth? What are the key trends in the market? Which are the leading distribution channels? Is the pattern changing? What role do garden centres play in the market and is this likely to change?

We have a report on pet accessories, where you can find out more about the market. 

Jane is also presenting on the main stage in the afternoon, on the topic of garden products distribution and recent changes in the market. In addition, she will share some our views on the future prospects for the sector.

Some of the questions answered during this session include; How big is the UK garden products market? What are the key trends and the mail growth areas at the moment? Which are the largest distribution channels? How will the sector develop over the next few years? Will the trend towards online shopping have an impact on the market? How will the role of garden centres change?

AMA Research publishes a report on the distribution of garden products in the UK, in which you can find out more about this market.

See you there!

UK plant hire market forecast to grow by 11% between 2018 and 2022

The UK plant hire market was estimated to be worth £3bn in 2017, with growth of around 1% forecast for 2018. The plant hire market is extremely diverse, with equipment ranging from dehumidifiers to excavators, and demand for each type of equipment varies, reflecting a combination of factors including the level of new work and RMI in sectors such as highways and distribution & warehousing. Demand in sectors such as pumping and climate control is also impacted by the prevalent weather conditions.

The market experienced modest growth up to 2013 but increased significantly in 2014 due to improvements in both housing and non-residential building markets, as well as manufacturing and other non-construction end-use sectors. Since then, the plant hire market has remained positive, though growth has been at a lower level. Infrastructure remains the key end-use sector, although different parts of the infrastructure sector have performed differently in recent years. Plant hire is a highly competitive market and as such hire rates have been affected, remaining relatively static in recent years.

Earth-moving equipment and lifting equipment together are estimated to account for over two thirds of the plant hire market by value. The earth moving equipment hire market is traditionally cyclical, with demand influenced by levels of the non-residential construction, housebuilding, construction associated industries such as quarrying, and some non-construction activities including waste management. Earth moving equipment is one of the first sectors to benefit from construction project starts, and prospects for the sector are positive with growth forecast to 2022. Hire demand the lifting sector has also remained relatively strong.

“The performance of the plant hire market is highly dependent on the performance of the overall construction market” said Jane Tarver of AMA Research “Individual hire company’s experiences tend to vary in terms of product sectors and regional & geographical trends, with companies in the South East, for example, seeing higher demand from the housebuilding sector than those in the North of England, Scotland, etc.”

Prospects for this sector remain positive, although in common with many sectors of the hire market, there are likely to be regional variations in performance. Overall, the market is forecast to experience modest growth in 2018, benefiting from the HS2 project which is due to be started in the Autumn. From 2018 onwards, construction sub-sectors forecast to increase output and provide opportunities for growth include infrastructure, entertainment & leisure, industrial and health as well as housebuilding.

The ‘Plant HireMarket Report – UK 2018-2022’ report is available now and can be ordered online at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242 235724.

Facilities Management Outsourcing - Health and Education Sector - 5 Key Facts

• The market value for outsourced integrated services and TFM in health and education is expected to grow by 17% through to 2022.
• The penetration of bundled and TFM outsourcing within healthcare is estimated at around 25%, with outsourcing generally higher for 'soft' services.
• The Primary education market accounts for 52% of services costs in the education market.
• Building maintenance and improvement accounts for a significant portion of FM expenditure in education, representing 25-30% of the overall market.
• Bundled services in the Mental Health & Learning Trusts represent 20% of the total service provision.

These facts have been extracted from AMA Research's 'Facilities Management Outsourcing – Health and Education Sector Report - UK 2018-2022' available for purchase now.